NFL Fantasy Mock Draft Analysis #1
Quick disclosure regarding this mock draft, it was done through ESPN’s mock draft tool and we had 12 active participants up until about round 6, and then only 6 active participants from round 11 on so many picks were auto picked which is exemplified through the kickers and defenses going so early. Anyway this is Coaster’s Corner mock draft analysis where 3 people from our team participated in a mock draft to show you where every player is being selected in pre season as well as a quick glimpse into how high you may want to be on those rookies. I have to say the mock draft went nearly as planned in terms of QB selection, lack of running backs by round 6 and the unlimited amount of talent at the WR position. I highly recommend doing some mock drafts closer to the start of pre season as well as plenty before your own draft. With all that said, this is how my draft played out and Kenny and Ben will be discussing their picks in the next coming days, let us know how we did!
Round 1.4: Ezekiel Elliot. Some might say this comes as a surprise but him and brown are interchangeable at the number 3 spot. Possessing the 9th easiest schedule for RB’s, receiving 322 attempts last year and having 15 touchdowns, there’s a lot to love about Zeek. I do not see his volume shrinking with it being his sophomore year and although a couple O linemen have left the Cowboys, the main wall is still in front of him for Elliot to succeed. Yes these off field antics may result in his draft stock taking a dip and may take a larger dip if suspended, however he is still an elite RB and should not be taken lower than 5.
Round 2.21: Amari Cooper. Amari Cooper according to fantasy pros is the WR10 and that is exactly where he was drafted. Cooper has the skillset to have a breakout year for Raiders, although he has got back to back seasons of 130+ targets and 1,000 yards receiving there is a next step to becoming that elite receiver the Raiders are waiting for. His problem is the end zone, he only has 11 TD over those two past seasons, with Michael Crabtree being the more viable red zone target. Regardless, with Lynch coming to Oakland this will open up the field for more big shots which Cooper strives at. I was debating between Cooper and Baldwin with hopes Baldwin would fall to my 3rd round pick but that was not the case. Another player I considered was Rob Gronkowski but I cannot justify taking a TE in the 2nd round even if it is a player with the caliber of Gronk.
Round 3.28: DeAndre Hopkins. Most likely my toughest pick of the draft, I had 2 minutes and used every second to make this pick. DeAndre Hopkins is WR 12 according to ADP and he was the 14th off the board so there was value in this selection but took a huge blow last year because of QB struggles in Houston. What is outrageous about Hopkins is his targets the last three years, 127, 192, and 151. Hopkins is the clear cut number one in Houston and excels at the outside part of the field where Brock was unable to hit last season. If Watson starts, I like Hopkins more but his draft value shouldn’t change much if Savage remains the guy. The tough part of the pick was the debate between him and Brandin Cooks, I just could not select a Patriots receiver this early. From week to week the risk of Patriots receivers is so high because they are so game script dependent, as where Hopkins will get 10+ targets week in week out and has not missed a game in the last 4 years.
Round 4.45: Carlos Hyde. Carlos Hyde is a tough puzzle to crack, new coach who will be calling the plays has came out and said he is not too fond of Hyde and he is on arguably the worst team in football. His ADP ranking is 35 so I might have found some value in this pick and although he missed 3 games he still managed to find pay dirt 9 times and was only 12 yards shy of 1,000 yards on the ground. I wanted to fortify a RB2 who is a starter on a team week in week out and I thought it was too early to draft Frank Gore or CJ Anderson or Spencer Ware. Hyde and Ware have similar situations with rookie RB’s posing as a threat to take some market share of touches but Hyde will hopefully prove himself during camp to his new coach. This pick came before the reports of Hyde being possibly cut in this upcoming camp, I understand than San Francisco is trying to tank for a high pick but Hyde might be their greatest asset on the offense, it will be interesting to see how this situation unfolds.
Round 5.52: Jamison Crowder. So I might have drafted Crowder 22 spots ahead of his current ADP but that goes to show my love for Crowder. Crowder had 99 targets with 847 yards and 7TD last year with a large chunk of those numbers coming midway through last season. I just think with Jackson leaving and Reed’s inconsistency of playing time, Crowder knows Kirk the best and has shown flashes of brilliance along with great chemistry with the QB. I truly do think Crowder will get the looks he needs to achieve nearly 50+ yards receiving every game. The main debates for this pick for myself was Martavis Bryant and Brandon Marshall but I felt as if the floor of Crowder’s production was something I did not want to pass up on given the two WR’s I already have.
Round 6.69: Paul Perkins. As of now Paul Perkins is the lead back of a highly touted offense in New York and reports say he will be getting more of a workhorse back role like he was receiving at the end of last year. He is projected at the number 81 spot but the RB’s in this draft were starting to dwindle and the other choices at this point in the draft were along the likes of Abdullah, Riddick, Gillislee and Coleman. I do my best to select running backs that are projected to get more touches and there is a high correlation with running backs on winning teams finishing in the top 15 for RB’s so Perkins and Gillislee were my two options but the upside of not as much competition for playing time made me decide Perkins.
Round 7.76: Kelvin Benjamin. Kelvin Benjmain is still a viable threat in the red zone for a struggling Carolina team and although he did not perform to the standards many had hoped last year he still managed 7 TD with 941 yards and received 118 targets. I thought this was decent value for a player who is a #1 WR and has the 4th easiest schedule for WR’s. His ADP is at 86 but I expect this number to rise as we get closer to the start of the season, he is a big bodied WR that unfortunately had to miss an entire season in 2015 and with the loss of Ted Ginn there is more incentive for deep balls to go his way this upcoming season. Carolina did add the rookie sensation McCaffrey but he should not take away from his targets this season, watch out for Kelvin Benjamin being an underrated WR2 but I think his floor is a WR3 on any team.
Round 8.93: Eric Decker. After being signed to the Titans many wondered how Decker will fit with the other receivers in the Titans offense like Rishard Matthews, and the rookie receiver Corey Davis but stats do not lie about Decker being one of the most efficient red zone targets in the league. Decker has a lifetime career average of 0.5 TD/game which is hard to argue that he will be a dependent option for Mariota. I think what could hurt him the most is the other big body in the middle of the field with Delanie Walker and their dependence on the run for success with arguably the best RB duo in the league with Murray and Henry. Regardless Decker should find success in this potent offense with his size and ability to work out of the slot or on the outside, if he can build some rapport with Mariota, he could be the #1 WR to start the season.
Round 9.100: Corey Coleman. By far the most rushed pick of the draft, I thought it was too early to select a QB despite having Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins available so I picked a WR on a bad team that if healthy should see a lot of garbage time opportunity. If healthy of all last year, Coleman was on pace for 125 targets and I know Pryor was replaced by Kenny Britt but I see Coleman being the #1 WR on this team because of his potential and understanding of the system that is already in place. Yes, I recognize Cody Kessler maybe starting or worse, the man who can only walk and talk that is Brock Osweiler but they will have to pass it to someone and he is their biggest threat on offense. If Coleman can stay healthy I think he has potential to reach the 1,000 yard year Cleveland fans are wanting however, I would not bank on this given the Browns circumstances.
Round 10.117: Tyrel Williams. He is most likely the steal of the draft from my perspective considering the reports of Mike Williams potentially missing the entire season due to back surgery which boosts both Tyrel Williams and Keenan Allen’s draft stock. Tyrel Williams was a high quality waiver wire pickup last year due to a plethora of injuries to the Chargers, he produced over 1,000 yards on 119 targets and 7 TD’s. As a 10th round draft pick this was too much to pass on considering Keenan Allen hasn’t had a healthy season in a few years and he is clearly the #2 WR on LA’s newest team so it will be interesting to see what his target share will be like this year. His main threats to take over some of the receptions are Hunter Henry and Dontrelle Inman but I do not see any of them making a huge impact on William’s production and he can hopefully produce as a WR3 this year.
Round 11.124: Jameis Winston. Jameis will be my target for QB in nearly every draft possible this year because of the additions this offense made in the off season on top of getting a high level of talent in the 10th round or later in your drafts. Desean Jackson, Mike Evans and O.J Howard who is also teaming up with Cameron Brate provides Jameis with many weapons on offense through the air. He is currently being the 13th QB off the board but I truly do think he has top 8 potential given he has thrown for over 4,000 yards in his first two seasons with what he has been given during his short tenure with Tampa Bay. He increased his TD’s last year and completion percentage and also a threat to be a short yardage scorer through the ground. Many people are saying the Buccaneers are a team to be reckoned with this year and I am one of those people so Jameis in the 11th round was a no brainer.
Round 12.141: Eric Ebron. Currently Ebron is going as the 15th TE off the board, and the 135th overall in the draft, but I think we might finally see the Eric Ebron Lions fans have wanted. Ebron has not played a full healthy season yet but let us not forget he was a 10th overall pick and is seeing steady increases in his receiving and targets year over year with 537 on 70 in 2015 and 711 on 85 in 2016. He is the only big body for Stafford to look for in the red zone, and given I had not drafted a TE yet and the next best option was OJ Howard and Jason Witten I would rather draft someone with a potential to be a top 6 TE rather than a rookie or a seasoned veteran who is nothing but a safety blanket.
Round 13.148: Quincy Enunwa. I am a die-hard Jets fan so I try and get at least one player each year and given how the team has altered for this year, Quincy is the only one who provides any value. Sadly enough, I got a number one receiver on a team in the 13th round, Enunwa, Robbie Anderson and Charone Peake are our best three receivers. Enunwa received 105 targets and had 857 last season and that was with Marshall and Decker in the lineup, yes there were some injuries along the way but I do not forecast these numbers going any lower given he has a healthy season. I firmly believe the Jets will not win more than three games this season which means they are down most of the time which inclines them to pass more despite being a run first offense. Enunwa is a target of mine in every draft and currently has an ADP of 148 so this seemed like a good time to get the Jets #1.
Round 14.165: New York Giants Defense. If you pick a defense any earlier than the 12th round, I question you as a fantasy football player considering you can live week to week on the waiver wire. I personally like the Giants as a defense pick given their sack capabilities along with their strong secondary that is poised to do better than last year. They have one of the best corner back duos to tag team with Landon Collins, the Giants are equipped this year to get Eli another shot at a ring.
Round 15.172: Sebastian Janikowski. Every team needs a kicker and I will take the heavy legged lefty from Oakland, he has mighty power on a very good offense which spells out more points from a week to week basis. Again if you choose a kicker in any other round than your last, you will not win your league there is too much value in drafting possible handcuffs, or extremely deep sleepers that can help win your league versus winning the kicker lottery.