NFL Fantasy Mock Draft Analysis #3
Jangus checking in here for the final and undeniably most anticipated edition of the Coaster’s Corner Fantasy mock draft. In preparation for the upcoming 2017 fantasy football season we have completed a 12 team mock draft through ESPN, and compiled our analysis to study where players are slated to be drafted in your fantasy drafts. Without further ado, here are my picks and analysis:
1.5 Julio Jones WR - 5th Overall
Alternative picks: Odell Beckham Jr. WR , Lesean Mccoy RB
Barring injury, Jones is almost a lock for 1,200 yards and a top 3 WR finish, as he operates as the main cog in the Falcons offense. Though the prospects of OBJ and Lesean Mccoy may be tempting, Jones’ floor has been outstanding, as he has averaged 100 yards a game from 2013-2016. With the potential for a bump in red zone targets and the emergence of Matt Ryan as an elite fantasy QB, Jones should be a stud at pick #5.
2.20 Leonard Fournette RB - 20th Overall
Alternative picks: Lamar Miller RB , Rob Gronkowski TE
At pick #20, it was necessary to address the RB position after taking Julio Jones in the first round. After seeing notable backs like Todd Gurley (#16) Devonta Freeman (#17) and Jay Ajayi (#18) go a few picks before, I pulled the trigger on the first rookie in the draft, Leonard Fournette. The highly touted LSU product should alleviate some pressure on Blake Bortles andsee a large volume of work in the Jaguars backfield, giving him a nice floor and RB1 upside.
3.29 Brandin Cooks WR - 29th Overall
Alternative Picks: Sammy Watkins WR, Aaron Rodgers QB
Cooks, a high profile offseason acquisition by the Patriots, had an under the radar 1,173 yards and 8 touchdowns with New Orleans in 2016 which was good for a WR8 finish. An off-season trade sent Cooks packing for New England, where the star receiver will look continue his solid production under the offence of the reigning Super Bowl champs. At #29, it was a tough decision between Cooks and Sammy Watkins, as Watkins offers clear cut #1 WR capabilities, but effectively his injury problems made me go with Cooks. I feel very comfortable with Cooks reproducing similar numbers in 2017 as he did in 2016.
4.44 Davante Adams WR - 44th Overall
Alternative Picks: Larry Fitzgerald WR, Stefon Diggs WR
Davante Adams surprised many in 2016 by finishing seventh in WR scoring with 12 touchdowns. The sudden spike in production was certainly unpredictable, but with the best quarterback in the league, Aaron Rodgers, receivers can put up astronomical numbers if the star QB develops a working chemistry with his pass catchers. This was the case for Adams in 2016. Though Jordy Nelson is still undeniably the #1 WR in Green Bay, Adams still has great opportunity, as he saw 25 red zone targets last season. As the 25th WR off the board, there could be lots of value had with this pick. Banking on Adams to reproduce his 2016 numbers may be a bit of a gamble, but with Aaron Rodgers as his QB I tend to favour a positive season with a high WR2 or low WR1 finish.
5.53 Ty Montgomery RB - 53rd Overall
Alternative Picks: Spencer Ware RB, Dalvin Cook RB
The former WR now finds himself as the starting running back in Green Bay, and has showed flashes of being very effective at his new position. The Packers did draft 3 additional RB’s in the 2017 draft, but it looks like as of right now, the job is for Montgomery to lose. Montgomery could be an extremely effective fantasy back as he operates in one of the league's top offenses with the league’s best quarterback. I would expect him to generate a weekly flex play floor with a ceiling that could find him as one of the high RB2’s.
6.68 Eddie Lacy RB - 68th Overall
Alternative Picks: Paul Perkins RB, Tyler Eifert TE
The Seahawks took a chance on Lacy in the offseason, hoping that he could regain his dominant form that once made him a top back in Green Bay. The Hawks made Lacy a priority and paid him starter’s money in order to try to rebuild a backfield that has lacked since Marshawn Lynch’s departure. Early reports out of Seattle are that Lacy is in one of his best shapes in a while, after hitting his first weight goal at training camp. Though Seattle’s backfield does include backs that could steal carries like Thomas Rawls and C.J Prosise, I believe that Lacy is the most probable to emerge as the starter, and should result as potential flex value throughout the season.
7.77 Mike Gillislee RB - 77th Overall
Alternative Picks: Ameer Abdullah RB, Adrian Peterson RB
The opportunity that waits Gillislee this season with the Pats is enough to warrant his 7th round selection. The favourite to fill “The Blount” role, Gillislee should see the majority of goal line carries in a very powerful Patriot’s offence. Watching a decent amount of Bills games last year, I know that Gilly is a very capable runner and even in a limited role behind Lesean Mccoy was still able to put up decent fantasy numbers (627 yds, 9 TD for an RB27) finish in 2016. As camp begins this week, I think Gillislee has an edge on other backs like Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and super bowl hero, James White, and should be the one to lead the patriots backfield when the season begins in September. I think Gillislee could be a steal, and predict him to end as an RB2 with upside to be a solid RB1, making this easily my favourite pick of my draft.
8.92 Doug Martin RB - 92nd Overall
Alternative picks: Eric Decker WR, Matt Forte RB
After drafting a depth of running backs in previous rounds, the eighth round seemed like a suitable place to take a chance on the boom or bust potential of Doug Martin. In 5 seasons in the NFL, Martin has rushed for more than 1400 yards twice, but has failed to break 500 yards three times. Even though he is suspended for the first four games of the season, Martin should find himself back in the starter role for the Bucs, and has the kind of talent that it takes to win a fantasy championship.
9.102 John Brown WR - 102nd Overall
Alternative Picks: C.J Prosise RB, Randall Cobb WR.
The Arizona wideout had a tough time staying consistent in 2016 after a strong, 1000+ yard season in 2015. Dealing with multiple injuries as well as a sickle cell trait that kept him off the field at times, Brown left owners disappointed last season. This season in a contract year, Brown is reportedly fully healthy heading into camp and is primed for a rebound year. I like Brown to put up numbers similar to his 2015 season, which should slot him in nicely as a weekly WR2 or flex play.
10.116 Jeremy Maclin - 116th Overall
Alternative Picks: Tyrell Williams WR, Marvin Jones WR
A new home could do all the world of difference for Jeremy Maclin in 2016. Once a highly coveted fantasy receiver, Maclin has fell off the last couple seasons due to injury and the fact that Alex Smith is hesitant to throw the football more than 10 yards. Maclin now turns to Baltimore where he pairs with QB Joe Flacco, who isn't shy to throw the long bomb, a pass that Maclin thrives off of. He should have a wealth of opportunity in his new home and have legitimate shot at becoming the team's #1 receiver. I like Maclin to regain some of his old self this year and I really think this pick will end up having a lot of value when the fantasy season begins to unfold.
11.125 Latavius Murray - 125th Overall
Alternative Picks: Curtis Samuel WR, Hunter Henry TE
I do believe that Dalvin Cook is the back to own in Minny, but Latavius Murray can't be ignored, especially when you can grab him in the 11th round at 125th overall. Murray signed a 3 year $15 million deal in the offseason, which isn't exactly the regular salary for a backup, and could mean that a decent workload is in line for him. Murray finished 2016 as RB#13 so we are aware that he is capable of putting up decent production. This is truly a boom or bust pick, and I'm completely fine with taking a chance on a player of Murray’s caliber this late in the draft.
12.140 Jacquizz Rodgers - 140th Overall
Alternative Picks: Charles Sims RB, Jamaal Charles RB.
In round twelve I elected to take Doug Martin’s handcuff and the potential starter for at least the Bucs first four games. Jacquizz Rodgers excelled when given the starting role last year due to injuries to Doug Martin and Charles Sims, and word out of Bucs camp is that they plan to stick with ‘Quizz as the starter for the beginning of the 2017 season. With rookie Jeremy Mcnichols and vet Charles Sims looming, Rodgers has some competition for carries, but with hisimpressive showing late last year, I'm confident that he can secure the Starter's role during Martin’s suspension.
13.149 Tyrod Taylor - 149th Overall
Alternative Picks: Blake Bortles QB, Carson Wentz QB
I opted to wait on quarterback due to the depth at the position and decided to go with my guy TT5 down in Buffalo. A dynamic QB that can throw the ball as well as make plays in the run game, Taylor offers quite a ceiling for his fantasy potential. Taylor has finished QB#14 and QB#8in the past 2 years giving him solid value as I’ve drafted him as the 16th QB. If Taylor can produce consistent passing numbers and continue to produce solid rushing yards like he has in the past, he should be primed for another top 10 QB finish.
14.164 Julius Thomas - 164th Overall
Alternative Picks: OJ Howard TE, Charles Clay TE
A once highly sought after player at the TE position, Thomas has found his value drop over the seasons due to his inconsistency and injuries. This year, Thomas finds himself on a brand new team, the Miami Dolphins, and with new team comes new opportunity. Dolphins offensive coordinator, Clyde Christensen has high praise for Thomas, as he recently stated that he thinks thomas could easily be a “ten touchdown guy”. With Ryan Tannehill sometimes being inconsistent in the red zone I would look for Thomas to act as a safety blanket farther down the field, which could lead to greater production. As a person that usually will stream TE’s, Thomas is someone I hope can regain his old form and be a late round value.
15.173 Dustin Hopkins - 173rd Overall
Alternative Picks: Will Lutz K, Caleb Sturgis K
Everyone has to draft a kicker at some point, and I usually leave my kicker and D/ST until my final two picks. In this instance, I picked the best kicker available in Hopkins while waiting to select my defence for another round. Hopkins ranked 3rd overall in fantasy points by kickers in 2016 with 144. In addition, the Redskins ranked 4th in the NFL with 34 total field goals made. Hopkins doesn't miss many, and should be near the top of the table when it comes to kickers in 2017.